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Fewer votes. But seriously, no primary + no 3rd party = near slam dunk
User account number (aid): 18 Site Supporter
Posted by nomad on 2012-04-25 22:30:38

In Reply to: You have to look at why they lost. posted by gsw_hoops on 2012-04-25 12:41:28

If a President is unpopular enough, he will draw a challenger, if times are bad enough, someone outside of the 2 main parties may jump in.

But this year features neither of those.

One caveat - Bush II almost lost, which would have broken the trend. So you could argue that we're in a new era, one in which the old rules don't apply. Seriously doubt that, though.

Thread:

It's gotta be Rubio for Mitt. - extremely developed tentacles 2012-04-23 14:01:25 (68 views)

I thought he was injured - shikantaza 2012-04-24 09:33:38 (32 views)

LOL - shikantaza 2012-04-24 13:37:53 (36 views)

oh nose, mad similar joke to underbore - shikantaza 2012-04-24 13:38:16 (60 views)

LOL - buzz 2012-04-24 14:08:31 (35 views)

TWolves aren't going to make that trade, and the contracts don't match. - gsw_hoops 2012-04-24 09:00:13 (30 views)

Cheney - CARTIERFROHAWK 2012-04-23 17:46:01 (37 views)

If they were all afraid to run for president, why would they hitch their wagon to a sure loser? - Shallow Hal 2012-04-23 16:37:56 (73 views)

True about the stigma - 1920/1932 is the last time the loser for VP became President - nomad 2012-04-23 19:57:25 (56 views)

Interesting. I didn't know that. Of course, not everyone wants to be VP for real - Zaphod 2012-04-24 08:12:16 (53 views)

on the other hand though, being V.P. makes it VERY likely you will go on to become President - Max 2012-04-24 12:06:52 (38 views)

But, since the race is 50/50, I would think that someone - gsw_hoops 2012-04-24 13:42:27 (40 views)

here's a tip: say "if we assume the race is 50/50" - Max 2012-04-24 14:13:24 (52 views)

Hard to beat a sitting President. Absent a strong primary challenger or 3rd party candidate, hasn't - nomad 2012-04-24 23:00:51 (38 views)

You have to look at why they lost. - gsw_hoops 2012-04-25 12:41:28 (25 views)

Fewer votes. But seriously, no primary + no 3rd party = near slam dunk - nomad 2012-04-25 22:30:38 (34 views)

The only indication we have now are a multitude of polls - gsw_hoops 2012-04-24 14:35:49 (43 views)

LOL. Random polls? - Earl j. Slick 2012-04-24 21:37:53 (37 views)

we have other indications...e.g., betting markets, historical patterns, known candidate defects etc. - Max 2012-04-24 15:42:25 (50 views)

And several more gained the party's nomination but lost the election. - BackseatGM 2012-04-24 13:36:14 (34 views)

Too many skeletons, I'm guessing. Though not sure who else - Martinez? - nomad 2012-04-23 14:20:58 (63 views)

Portman, Daniels, McDonnell, Christie, Jindal, Pawlenty, Ryan, Huckabee, Haley - Zaphod 2012-04-23 16:23:17 (83 views)

Doc is too busy re-doing the math - Shallow Hal 2012-04-23 16:38:39 (46 views)

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