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Hard to beat a sitting President. Absent a strong primary challenger or 3rd party candidate, hasn't
User account number (aid): 18 Site Supporter
Posted by nomad on 2012-04-24 23:00:51

In Reply to: here's a tip: say "if we assume the race is 50/50" posted by Max on 2012-04-24 14:13:24

happened since Hoover.

Sitting Presidents who have lost in the last 100 years:

Taft, challenged for the nomination by Teddy Roosevelt, beaten by him and Wilson in the general.

Hoover, only a weak primary challenger, no 3rd party candidate to speak of. The exception.

Carter, strong primary challenge from Teddy Kennedy, moderate 3rd party challenger (Anderson.)

Bush I, moderate primary challenger (Buchanan), strong 3rd party candidate (Perot.)

More striking is how many sitting Presidents won re-election in that time: Wilson, Coolidge, FDR (3 times), Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton & Bush II.

Very, very unlikely that Obama will lose.

Thread:

It's gotta be Rubio for Mitt. - extremely developed tentacles 2012-04-23 14:01:25 (68 views)

I thought he was injured - shikantaza 2012-04-24 09:33:38 (32 views)

LOL - shikantaza 2012-04-24 13:37:53 (36 views)

oh nose, mad similar joke to underbore - shikantaza 2012-04-24 13:38:16 (60 views)

LOL - buzz 2012-04-24 14:08:31 (35 views)

TWolves aren't going to make that trade, and the contracts don't match. - gsw_hoops 2012-04-24 09:00:13 (30 views)

Cheney - CARTIERFROHAWK 2012-04-23 17:46:01 (37 views)

If they were all afraid to run for president, why would they hitch their wagon to a sure loser? - Shallow Hal 2012-04-23 16:37:56 (73 views)

True about the stigma - 1920/1932 is the last time the loser for VP became President - nomad 2012-04-23 19:57:25 (56 views)

Interesting. I didn't know that. Of course, not everyone wants to be VP for real - Zaphod 2012-04-24 08:12:16 (53 views)

on the other hand though, being V.P. makes it VERY likely you will go on to become President - Max 2012-04-24 12:06:52 (38 views)

But, since the race is 50/50, I would think that someone - gsw_hoops 2012-04-24 13:42:27 (40 views)

here's a tip: say "if we assume the race is 50/50" - Max 2012-04-24 14:13:24 (52 views)

Hard to beat a sitting President. Absent a strong primary challenger or 3rd party candidate, hasn't - nomad 2012-04-24 23:00:51 (38 views)

You have to look at why they lost. - gsw_hoops 2012-04-25 12:41:28 (25 views)

Fewer votes. But seriously, no primary + no 3rd party = near slam dunk - nomad 2012-04-25 22:30:38 (33 views)

The only indication we have now are a multitude of polls - gsw_hoops 2012-04-24 14:35:49 (43 views)

LOL. Random polls? - Earl j. Slick 2012-04-24 21:37:53 (37 views)

we have other indications...e.g., betting markets, historical patterns, known candidate defects etc. - Max 2012-04-24 15:42:25 (50 views)

And several more gained the party's nomination but lost the election. - BackseatGM 2012-04-24 13:36:14 (34 views)

Too many skeletons, I'm guessing. Though not sure who else - Martinez? - nomad 2012-04-23 14:20:58 (63 views)

Portman, Daniels, McDonnell, Christie, Jindal, Pawlenty, Ryan, Huckabee, Haley - Zaphod 2012-04-23 16:23:17 (83 views)

Doc is too busy re-doing the math - Shallow Hal 2012-04-23 16:38:39 (46 views)

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