Whatʻs there to learn from 2008, on both sides, and even from 2004 to some extent: the old narratives and formulas have lost most of their predictive value.
In 2004, Kerry got staggered early, but had so much more money and organization that he just wore everyone else down. And then Obama got out to an early lead, never landed a knockout punch as of course he "had to", and won the game by having the most points at the end.