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Tension over when to attack

by Colin Adamson, Robert Fox and Peter Almond
There are signs of growing tensions in Washington, as key figures in the Bush administration debate whether to launch military strikes soon - even though the US military is short of good target intelligence on Osama bin Laden and the Afghan Taliban regime - or to hold back.

Hawks point out that the American public has been encouraged to expect imminent and massive military action, and is likely to be confused by continuing delay. Those who favour swift action also highlight problems ahead with Afghanistan's weather, as winter approaches.

Doves, however, emphasise the major diplomatic successes being achieved in building an international coalition, and the risk of jeopardising these by staging military action without identifying valid and worthwhile terrorist targets.

President Bush is making daily announcements on such issues as airline security and banking probes on terrorist groups, to maintain a sense in his nation's mind that the administration is taking action, to deflect public impatience.

But impatience there is likely to be, if no military action takes place in the next few days.

British and US special forces have only weeks to get in and out of Afghanistan before its vicious winter sets in. Temperatures are already dropping sharply and the first snowfalls were reported this week in the Khyber Pass. Within a month much of the desolate mountain region is likely to be covered in 10ft-high drifts blocking mountain-passes and effectively closing down the country until next April.

Gales rip through the valleys and, together with dense mountain mists, flying conditions could scarcely be more hazardous, even for the sophisticated US Black Hawk and Apache AH64 attack helicopters, which will be the likely providers of close air support. Precision bombing raids by RAF Tornado GR4s and the USAF's main strike aircraft, the B-1B Lancer, would also be hard hit by the appalling weather.

As rumours of an imminent American air attack on Afghanistan have mounted, military planners in the US and Europe have warned of the huge difficulties in mounting a successful ground operation against the Taliban and Bin Laden, especially at short notice. "The problems of intelligence are enormous - particularly of the kind you need to build an operational plan," said a senior diplomatic source. The diplomat said the Americans still did not have enough aircraft and supplies in the region to mount a major air strike alone.

America has, however, adopted a measured approach to Nato. After a one-day meeting of defence ministers in Brussels with under secretary for defence Paul Wolfowitz, the Bush administration said it was not asking for a large contribution of forces and assets from the alliance as a whole.

Individual allies would be asked for specific contributions. Tony Blair has offered help from British forces. Some could come from the air, land and sea exercise about to start within days in Oman.

Behind the scenes, the focus in America and Europe, and Britain especially, is on gathering intelligence on the US terrorist atrocity. At least five, and possibly eight, aircraft now appear to have been selected for the suicide attacks.

• london news