Power sharing arrangment between Iraqis, Shias and Kurds. Iraq's borders will remain the same. Iraq's governance will look most like that of Afghanistan either with an acceptable native leader or with an American general as the head.

The Kurds get oil money now -- they get a share of the money raised by Iraq's humanitarian oil sales to the US. The UN sends the Kurd's share directly to them. They've been using it for infrastructure like hospitals and schools. In a new Iraq, there will be more oil money. The Iraqi Kurds will probably spend it on infrastructure and economic development.

Kurdish terrorism in Turkey is significantly less than it has been in the past. I'm not sure how connected Turkish Kurds are with the Iraqi Kurds. I believe they have separate political and military leaderships.

The NY Times scenario is a possibility, but more of a worst case.