i heard or read somewhere Rowell said they were prepared to go over the cap to keep him.
the question is "HOW MUCH OVER THE CAP".
without knowing the financial situation and the factors they consider (such as loss of attendance if Arenas leaves, current financial situation, etc). we as fans have no idea.
but the best guess is that they will probably go $1-$2 million over the cap to keep Arenas, which means about $6 mill for Arenas. plus the team is hoping the ability to renegotiate with Bird rights next year will be a big carrot for Arenas to stay (along with other factors such as geography, teammates, etc).