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Thoughts on Nelson from someone who has scouted him since he was a sophomore in high school.
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Posted by stick_doggie_dog on 2008-10-20 23:52:55

Good:

Nelson is a world class athlete in every way. World class. I have no doubt that he could start in the NFL if he put his mind to it.

Nelson's work ethic is second to none. He is Jerry Rice Jr when it comes to training.

Nelson has crazy springs. Nelson is NBA starter caliber quick. Nelson has arms that go from here to across the court.

Nelson is tough as nails. Nelson is strong as an ox. Nobody can stop Nelson from bulling his way to the hole. In this, he is Corey Maggette Jr.

Nelson is, right now, one of the top 50 perimeter defenders in the NBA. This is a very conservative estimate.

Nelson is, right now, one the very best rebounders in the world under 6'3" in shoes (if not the very best).

Bad:

Nelson has always had an ugly shot and a slow release. His range, even on set shots, has never extended beyond the college three point line. His shooting percentage off the dribble has never been high.

While Nelson can bull past his man anytime he pleases, what he does after this is not typically Monta-esque in terms of his conversion rate. If he gets trapped effectively on his way to the hole, he often loses the ball. If he is challenged at the hoop by athletic trees, he is often rejected or forced to change his shot. Unlike Ellis, when Nelson is forced to change his shot, his conversion percentage decreases significantly.

Nelson's handle has never been such that he can reliably dribble through heavy traffic. He has improved his handle quite a bit over the last two years, but it is certainly not one of his strengths.

Nelson is a bit of a head case from the free throw line when the pressure is on. And even when the pressure is off, he is just a 66% free throw shooter.

Bottom Line:

Nelson's offensive efficiency, shot selection, care of the ball and decision making so far this preseason have surpassed almost anything he has done at such a high level of competition at any time during his college career.

The difference may simply be his role. At Duke, Nelson could always bull by any guard covering him in practice, so his role was to be the same scorer in Duke's games as he was in Duke's practices. When Duke needed scoring, Nelson tended to force the action. Nelson often faced superior interior defenders in big games than in Duke's practices, and so he was not the greatest finisher. On the Warriors, Nelson is never even one of the top three scoring options, so he hasn't forced the action on offense. And because he hasn't, he has been playing the best basketball of his life.

Or so I hope.

We'll find out soon enough.

separated at birth

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